Egypt's leader sees currency stabilising "within days"

 Egypt's pound fell to a record low on Monday as the president signalled his government would allow it to depreciate slowly for several more days to stop a drain on foreign reserves that has driven the economy into crisis since the fall of Hosni Mubarak.
Hit by a new bout of political turmoil in the last month, the pound had weakened to a record low on Sunday at a new dollar auction brought in by the central bank. It fell further at a second auction on Monday, last trading at 6.37 to the dollar on the interbank market.
The drop means the central bank has allowed the pound to slide by almost 3 percent over the last two days after limiting its decline to only 6 percent since the uprising that removed Mubarak from power almost two years ago.
The pound's fall, which is certain to increase the price of imported staples such as tea and sugar, underlines the economic crisis facing President Mohamed Mursi as his administration tries to contain the political fall-out of his move to fast-track a contentious new constitution passed into law last week.
Egyptians panicked by street clashes between Mursi's Islamist backers and his more secular-minded opponents on the streets of Cairo and other cities have rushed to change their pounds into dollars in recent weeks, fearing it would be devalued further.
"The market will return to stability," Mursi told Arab journalists on Sunday evening, the state news agency MENA reported.
The pound's fall "does not worry or scare us, and within days matters will balance out," he said.
Having just sold their last dollar bills, dealers at one Cairo foreign exchange bureau did not bother changing their price board when the new low appeared on their trading screens.
"He took our last dollars," said one of the traders, pointing to a man walking out of the door.
Outside, another man told a friend his dollar hunt had failed. "They have no dollars. What can I do?" he said by mobile phone. "I went to many dealers and could not find dollars."
The fall has been driven mainly by ordinary citizens who have been trying to turn their savings into foreign currency, worried that the pound will weaken further because of the latest political turmoil.
The crisis wiped 10 percent off the value of Egyptian stocks when it erupted in late November. But the main index has mostly recovered since then, climbing in the two sessions since the introduction of the new foreign currency system.
Market participants attribute the rise to buying by Arab and international investors using the cheaper pound to bargain hunt.
FREE FLOATING POUND
The auctions are part of a shift announced on Saturday and designed to conserve foreign reserves, which the bank says are now at "critical" levels that cover just three months of the food, fuel and other goods Egypt imports.
Bankers have described the new system as a move towards establishing a free market value for the pound, which has been tightly controlled since a managed devaluation which ended in 2004.
The head of the Egyptian banking federation said the new system was an "important first step" towards a free float.
In remarks to MENA, Tarek Amer, who is also chairman of Egypt's largest bank, state-owned National Bank of Egypt, said the new system was a success on its first day and had "significantly reduced" demand for dollars.
The central bank has sold about $75 million at each of Sunday's and Monday's auctions.
The run on the pound prompted officials last week to impose controls on how much cash could be physically carried out of the country. Security men at one Cairo bank branch had to remove one customer angered by a $10,000 limit on how much currency he could withdraw, witnesses said.
The changes announced on Saturday include regular foreign currency auctions and also limit how much foreign currency companies can withdraw at a time.
The central bank had spent more than $20 billion - or more than half of its reserves - over the past two years to defend the currency. The reserves fell by a further $448 million in November to about $15 billion.
Prices of imports have already started to rise. Pyramid Oil Field, a firm that imports chemicals for use in water treatment and oil fields, had put up its prices by 10 to 15 percent last week, fearing a further weakening of the pound.
"This instability obliges you to increase the price, to have a safety factor," said Ashraf el-Gamal, president and managing director of the company, told Reuters. "From now on, the contracts will be of a very short validity."
To be on the safe side, he was projecting that the pound would weaken to stand at 9 against the euro, compared to a previous level of 8.
ECONOMY FRAGILE
Prime Minister Hisham Kandil said on Sunday that the economy was in "a very difficult and fragile" situation, adding that he expected talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $4.8 billion loan to resume in January.
Egypt won preliminary approval in November from the IMF for the loan, but delayed seeking final approval until January after it suspended a series of tax increases to allow more time to explain a heavily criticized package of economic austerity measures to the public.
Kandil's efforts to revive the economy have been hit by the latest turmoil, which scared off tourists who had begun to return. On the eve of the anti-Mubarak revolt, Egypt's tourism industry accounted for one in eight jobs.
Mursi hoped that the passage of a new constitution would stabilise Egypt's politics, giving him space to implement economic reforms and attract investment. The constitution, written by Mursi's Islamist allies, was approved in a popular referendum in December.
But it remains the focus of controversy, and the opposition is likely to seize upon austerity measures demanded under an IMF deal as a stick to beat the Muslim Brotherhood ahead of a parliamentary vote expected in early 2013.
Two-fifths of Egypt's 84 million population live around the poverty line and depend on subsidies that are straining the treasury.
Gamal of Pyramid Oil Field said he knew of at least three foreign companies that were hesitant to make large investments in the country because of the instability.
"They are feeling insecure because of everything that is happening," he said. "One is looking to invest billions."
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Egypt budget deficit expected to widen to 200 bln pounds: agency

Egypt's budget deficit in the year to end-June 2013 could widen by 50 percent from the original forecast made in July, according to a figure released by the planning minister on Monday.
"The budget deficit is expected to rise to 200 billion Egyptian pounds in the current fiscal year unless strict economic policies are put in place to confront it," the state news agency quoted Ashraf al-Araby as saying on Monday.
The 2012/13 budget released in July had forecast a deficit of 135 billion pounds compared to an actual deficit of 166.7 billion pounds for the previous year. Economists at the time said that forecast was optimistic.
President Mohamed Mursi earlier this month suspended a series of planned tax increases as the country prepared for a referendum on a contentious new constitution, which was passed on December 22.
The unpopular measures were deemed necessary to secure $4.8 billion Egypt is seeking from the International Monetary Fund, which wants Egypt to rein in its deficit.
The government said last week it would not implement the measures for at least two more weeks to give it time to explain them to different parts of society.
Prime Minister Hisham Kandil said on Sunday he expected talks with the IMF to resume in January.
Al-Araby predicted in November that this year's deficit would be 10.4 percent of gross domestic product, without stating the figure in pounds, up from the original forecast of 8 percent.
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Nigerian forex reserves up 34.4 pct yr-on-yr by December 24

Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves rose 34.45 percent year-on-year to $44.25 billion by December 24, latest figures from the central bank showed on Monday.
The forex reserves of Africa's second biggest economy were down from their year peak of $44.64 billion on December 7. Reserves stood at $44.03 billion a month ago and $32.91 billion the same the same time last year.
Nigeria's central bank has been on a drive to increase foreign exchange reserves this year in a bid to protect Africa's biggest crude exporter from oil price shocks and to defend the naira currency.
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Markets calm despite looming fiscal cliff

Markets appeared Monday to take in stride the ongoing failure of U.S. politicians to agree to a budget deal in time to avoid automatic tax increases and spending cuts that many economists think could tilt the world's largest economy back into recession.
With just hours to go before the U.S. falls off the so-called "fiscal cliff," Republicans and Democrats remained divided over taxes and spending, raising the prospect that markets will start 2013 without a clear idea of America's budget policy.
Unless an agreement is reached and approved by Congress by the start of New Year's Day, more than $500 billion in 2013 tax increases will begin to take effect and $109 billion will be carved from defense and domestic programs.
Discussions in the Senate broke off Sunday night without agreement. Senators are due to reconvene at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) to try to hammer out a deal before the deadline.
"With precisely zero headway made on the fiscal front resulting from the early weekend return by Congressional lawmakers, hopes are fast-fading of any sort of compromise before the end of 2012," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.
However, it's not the first time that budget discussions in the U.S. have gone down to the wire only for a deal to be eventually reached.
Many investors remain confident that some sort of deal will be struck in time following positive noises coming out from late Sunday discussions between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, and Vice President Joe Biden, a Democrat.
Even if a deal is not reached in time, many investors think that the possible damage can be contained for a while at least.
A backup proposal that would address only a few issues is expected to be presented by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, if a bipartisan deal is not reached.
"It is likely that many of the fiscal cliff measures allow a certain amount of room within which the government can introduce measures to refrain from any tax increases," said Joshua Mahony, an analyst at Alpari.
The prospect of counter-measures to offset the "fiscal cliff" impact helps explain why markets were fairly calm in Europe and Asia, and Wall Street was poised to open higher on the last day of a year that's seen many indexes post strong gains, partly through rising hopes over Europe's 3-year debt crisis.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed down 0.5 percent at 5,897.81. For the year as a whole, the FTSE ended 5.8 percent higher.
The CAC-40 in France closed 0.6 percent higher on the day at 3,641.07. In 2012, it rose 15.2 percent.
Those European indexes that were open only traded for half the day. Others, including Germany's DAX, were closed. The DAX was one of the world's best-performers in 2012 with its annual rise of 29.1 percent.
U.S. stocks opened solidly despite the "fiscal cliff" uncertainty, with the Dow Jones industrial average up 0.1 percent at 12,149 and the broader S&P 500 index up 0.4 percent at 1,407.
Despite the recent worries, U.S. stocks have had a strong 2012, with the Dow up around 6 percent so far and the S&P 11.5 percent higher.
Developments over the U.S. budget will likely be one of the big issues in financial markets in 2013, especially in the early part, alongside Europe's ongoing efforts to contain its debt crisis and the state of the Chinese economy, now the world's second biggest.
Clearly, the full imposition of the "fiscal cliff" measures would hobble the U.S. economy that has shown some signs of late of a more sustainable economic recovery. Waning U.S. economic growth would have an impact worldwide.
Some economists predict the effects of the "fiscal cliff" could eventually throw the U.S. economy back into recession — although if the deadline passes, politicians still have a few weeks to keep the tax hikes and spending cuts at bay by repealing them retroactively once a deal is reached.
Still, the failure to adhere to the deadline following weeks of squabbling and procrastination could be view negatively by the major credit rating agencies and weigh on investor confidence going into 2013.
"I think the market reaction to that will be very negative. This means the U.S. will never be able to bring its house in order. And the deficit will continue to accumulate," said Francis Lun, managing director of Lyncean Holdings in Hong Kong. "No meaningful reform and no solution in sight. You can throw confidence out of the window."
Earlier in Asia, the picture was fairly subdued in those markets that were open — among others, markets in Japan, were closed for the New Year's holidays. After a stellar performance in December, Japan's Nikkei ended the year almost 23 percent higher.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng, trading for a half-day, closed marginally lower at 22,656.92, to also end the year nearly 23 percent higher.
Mainland Chinese stocks rose Monday after a private survey showed the country's manufacturing growth at its strongest level in 18 months in December. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.5 percent to close at 4,648.90.
There was also a fairly calm atmosphere in other financial markets, with the euro down just 0.2 percent at $1.3190. Despite the endless debate over its future, the euro has actually ended the year modestly higher against the dollar.
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Vatican takes first spot in Internet domain name draw

The Vatican has come out in first place in a long-awaited draw to expand the Internet address system with new domain names that go beyond the usual .com, .org or .net endings.
ICANN, the corporation that oversees the Internet address system, announced this week the domain name .catholic written in Chinese characters will be the first bid it considers in a drive to expand and reorganize sites on the World Wide Web.
The same extension in Arabic letters ranked 25th in the random draw and the Vatican's application for a version in Cyrillic for Russian and other Slavic languages came in 96th.
Ranking high means the applicant could get approval early next year to operate the new domain and approve addresses using it. In the Vatican's case, Rome could then ensure only genuine Roman Catholic institutions get to use that domain name.
"This is a way to give a coherence and authentication to our presence in the digital arena," said Monsignor Paul Tighe, secretary of the Pontifical Council for Social Communications.
"Anyone looking online will recognize the site belongs to an institution that belongs to the Catholic Church," he said, adding the new, so-called top level domain names (|TLDs) could also help speed online searches.
.BIBLE AND .ISLAM
For online retailers such as Amazon, whose application for .store in Japanese came in second, early approval could mean a competitive advantage and prompt a quick introduction of the new name.
But the Vatican did not enter the draw for commercial reasons and would not rush to launch its TLDs, Tighe said. In addition, the main TLD it seeks - .catholic in Latin letters - ended up in 1,366th place and may take months before it is approved.
Website owners are now restricted to a few dozen TLDs such as .com and country code domains such as .co.uk or .fr. Many of the 1,930 applications for new TLDs came from companies, including Internet giants such as Amazon and Google.
Several other faith-based groups applied for other TLDs such as .bible or .islam. The extension .mormon was the next-highest religious application drawn, coming in at 118th place.
ICANN (www.icann.org), the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, has stressed that assigning a certain TLD does not imply any endorsement of the religious group seeking it, just recognition it is the best suited to use the name.
Tighe said the ICANN draw handled applications for TLDs in non-Latin alphabets first, which explained why the Vatican's Chinese, Arabic and Cyrillic extensions came out far ahead of its main TLD in Latin letters.
INTERNET IMPRIMATUR
ICANN invited comments on applications earlier this year. The Vatican's application for exclusive use of .catholic drew criticism from members of several Protestant churches that also use the term, which comes from the Greek for "universal".
"This request is a move by a powerful group to squelch the voices and rights of other Christians," Dave Daubert, pastor of Zion Lutheran Church in Elgin, Illinois, wrote on the ICANN webpage for comments on the applications.
Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, apparently saw no hope of a consensus on religious TLDs and opposed them all.
Some religions seem to have kept out of the fray entirely. There were no applications for .buddhist, .hindu or .jewish.
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Vatican says pope beats Justin Bieber on re-tweets

Pope Benedict, white-haired, 85, and a neophyte to social media site Twitter, has beaten out 18-year old heartthrob Justin Bieber to set a percentage record for re-tweeting by his followers, the Vatican said on Thursday.
The Vatican newspaper said that as of noon Italian time on Thursday the pope had 2.1 million followers on Twitter, eight days after his first tweet was sent.
While Canadian singer-songwriter Bieber has roughly 15 times as many followers - 31.7 million - the Vatican newspaper said Benedict had beaten Bieber on re-tweets.
It said about 50 percent of the pope's followers had re-tweeted his first tweet on December 12 while only 0.7 percent of Bieber's followers had re-tweeted one of the singer's most popular tweets on September 26, when he commented on the death by cancer of a six-year-old fan.
The Vatican said this was part of a wider trend in which people were looking for more spiritual content.
The pope already tweets in English, German, Italian, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Polish and Arabic. The newspaper said he will start tweeting in Latin and Chinese soon.
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Saudi website editor could face death for apostasy-rights group

The editor of a Saudi Arabian website could be sentenced to death after a judge cited him for apostasy and moved his case to a higher court, the monitoring group Human Rights Watch said on Saturday.
Raif Badawi, who started the Free Saudi Liberals website to discuss the role of religion in Saudi Arabia, was arrested in June, Human Rights Watch said.
Badawi had initially been charged with the less serious offence of insulting Islam through electronic channels, but at a December 17 hearing a judge referred him to a more senior court and recommended he be tried for apostasy, the monitoring group said.
Apostasy, the act of changing religious affiliation, carries an automatic death sentence in Saudi Arabia, along with crimes including blasphemy.
Badawi's website included articles that were critical of senior religious figures, the monitoring group said.
A spokesman for Saudi Arabia's Justice Ministry was not available to comment.
The world's top oil exporter follows the strict Wahhabi school of Islam and applies Islamic law, or sharia.
Judges base their decisions on their own interpretation of religious law rather than on a written legal code or on precedent.
King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia's ruler, has pushed for reforms to the legal system, including improved training for judges and the introduction of precedent to standardize verdicts and make courts more transparent.
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